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PRESS RELEASE
18 Oct 2022
Second update of ECDC monkeypox rapid risk assessment published by ECDC 18 October 2022
The European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control today published the second update to the Monkeypox multi-country outbreak rapid risk assessment. Since early May 2022 and as of 11 October, more than 20 000 cases of monkeypox (MPX) have been reported in 29 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries. This is nearly a third of the roughly 68 000 cases reported worldwide in 2022 until the end of September 2022.
The weekly number of MPX cases reported in the European Union peaked in July 2022 and is declining steadily since then.
According to the risk assessment it is likely that multiple factors have contributed to the decline, including efforts in risk communication and community engagement, increasing immunity in the most affected population and fewer large cultural and social events frequented by the main risk groups for this outbreak. The majority of cases continue to be detected in men between 18 and 50 years (87%), and primarily among men who have sex with men.
The report includes an updated risk assessment for the most affected sub-population and health professionals and new information on MPX vaccine effectiveness. It emphasised the need for continued efforts to respond to the outbreak and contains a section on considerations for the evolution of the outbreak and for preventing similar outbreaks with qualitative scenarios.
These scenarios include that (i) the outbreak may resurge, (ii) it causes a continued low number of new cases almost exclusively among MSM, (iii) that MPX wanes and disappears and (iv) is the disease is eliminated in the EU/EEA counties through concerted efforts in the region. The second scenario is considered the most likely.
The epidemiological situation is improving but the risk assessment underlines the need for continued active risk communication and community engagement efforts. Risk communication and community engagement strategies are a core element of any outbreak response and are essential to achieving results across all the proposed measures.
Early diagnosis, isolation, effective contact tracing, and vaccination strategies remain key for the effective control of the outbreak. Testing services for orthopoxvirus should be available, while support to sexual health services and awareness activities for health professionals around the ongoing outbreak is important for the appropriate case detection, contact tracing, and management of cases.
Resources
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/monkeypox
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/monkeypox/questions-and-answers
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/infectious-disease-topics/z-disease-list/monkeypox/epidemiological-data-2022-monkeypox-outbreak
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/infectious-disease-topics/z-disease-list/monkeypox/resources-health-professionals-monkeypox
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topics-z/monkeypox/factsheet-health-professionals
Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/monkeypox-multi-country-outbreak-second-update
Contact:
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European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) |
Gustav III:s boulevard 40, 169 73 Solna, Sweden |
Phone +46 (0)8 58 60 16 78 |
www.ecdc.europa.eu |
"Reproduced with permission - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)"
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)
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